India’s total exports touched US $ 413.3 billion in April–September 2025, growing 4.45 %. ABC Live critically analyses the government’s trade figures against independent data from RBI, DGCI&S and Reuters to reveal what the numbers really mean for 2026 outlook.
New Delhi (ABC Live): India’s latest trade estimates, released by the Ministry of Commerce through the Press Information Bureau (PIB) PRID 2179604, paint a cautiously optimistic picture. Between April and September 2025, India’s combined merchandise and services exports touched US $ 413.30 billion, a 4.45 % rise over the US $ 395.71 billion recorded during the same period of 2024. Imports totalled US $ 472.79 billion, leaving a trade deficit of US $ 59.48 billion—slightly narrower than last year’s US $ 60.87 billion.
But how do these government estimates hold up against real-time market and independent data? ABC Live cross-checked them with Reuters, RBI, DGCI&S, and the commerce ministry databases to assess the credibility and implications of this upbeat narrative.
PIB Highlights at a Glance
| Indicator | April–Sept 2024 (US $ bn) | April–Sept 2025 (US $ bn) | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Exports | 213.68 | 220.12 | 3.02 |
| Services Exports (est.) | 182.03 | 193.18 | 6.12 |
| Non-Petroleum Exports | 177.03 | 189.49 | 7.04 |
| Total Exports | 395.71 | 413.30 | 4.45 |
| Total Imports | 456.58 | 472.79 | 3.55 |
| Trade Balance | –60.87 | –59.48 | — |
Major export drivers (Sept 2025 YoY): Electronics (+ 50.54 %), Rice (+ 33.18 %), Marine Products (+ 23.44 %), Petroleum (+ 15.22 %), Pharma (+ 2.56 %).
Top export destinations (growth): UAE (+ 24.33 %), Spain (+ 150.8 %), China (+ 34.18 %), Bangladesh (+ 23.06 %), Egypt (+ 67.29 %).
IMF Projection: India’s GDP growth upgraded to 6.6 % (2025).
Comparison with Real-Time / Independent Data
| Metric | PIB Estimate | Independent Source | Alignment | Observation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise trade deficit (Sep 2025) | ≈ US $ 32.15 bn (derived from PIB) | Reuters (Oct 2025): US $ 32.15 bn | ✅ Exact match | Monthly data credible |
| April 2025 deficit | Not explicit in PIB | Reuters: US $ 26.42 bn | ✅ Consistent | Supports cumulative trend |
| FY 2024-25 total exports | US $ 820.93 bn | ET/RBI: US $ 824.9 bn | ⚙ Slight upward revision | Final data tend higher |
| FY 2024-25 merchandise deficit | US $ 282.83 bn | Livemint: US $ 282.8 bn | ✅ Identical | Confirms structural imbalance |
| Services exports FY 2024-25 | ≈ US $ 387 bn | RBI: US $ 387.5 bn | ✅ Consistent | Services remain stabiliser |
Analytical Assessment
Strengths
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Resilient Exports: Non-petroleum exports (+ 7 %) and services (+ 6 %) show diversification beyond hydrocarbons.
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Electronics Boom: 50 % rise reflects PLI scheme success, though value addition remains low.
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Services Superiority: Surplus of US $ 95.5 bn offsets merchandise deficit.
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Geographic Diversification: Gains in Spain and Egypt illustrate new market penetration.
Weaknesses / Risks
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Structural Deficit: Goods imports outpace exports; energy and gold drive dependence.
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Estimated Services Data: September numbers await RBI confirmation.
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Nominal vs Real Growth: Strong USD inflates figures; volume gains may be modest.
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Optimistic Framing: IMF growth projection used to boost sentiment without direct link.
Sectoral Context
| Sector | Trend | Key Driver | Structural Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electronics | + 50 % | PLI manufacturing schemes | Low local component base |
| Petroleum Products | + 15 % | Refining spread gains | Crude price volatility |
| Agriculture (Rice, Marine) | + 25–33 % | Commodity demand | Water and climate stress |
| Pharma | + 2.5 % | Generic exports | US/EU regulatory barriers |
| Services | + 6 % | IT and consulting exports | AI disruption, cost pressure |
Policy and Strategic Takeaways
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Deepen Manufacturing Value-Chains via semiconductor and component PLIs.
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Reduce Import Vulnerability through critical-input FTAs and domestic capacity.
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Ensure Data Integrity by syncing PIB, DGCI&S and RBI datasets monthly.
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Expand Service Base into legal, financial, and climate-tech exports.
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Embed Sustainability metrics in trade policy to avoid ecological overshoot.
Potential Trade Expansion Table — 2026 Outlook
| Sector | Potential Upside (US $ bn) | Time Horizon | Growth Driver | Strategic Intervention Needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electronics & Semiconductors | + 18–22 | 12 months | PLI 2.0, export clusters in TN & UP | Component fabrication, design incentives |
| Pharmaceuticals & Biotech | + 6–8 | 12 months | Global supply re-shoring | Regulatory harmonisation with EU/US |
| Agri-value Chains (Food Processing) | + 5–7 | 18 months | Middle East and Africa demand | Cold-chain and traceability standards |
| Renewable Energy Equipment (Solar, EV) | + 8–10 | 24 months | Export credit and carbon market linkage | Green financing pipeline |
| Digital & Professional Services | + 12–15 | 12 months | AI, cloud & fin-tech demand | Talent upskilling and data agreements |
| Defence & Space Tech | + 4–6 | 24 months | Global South collaboration | Export licensing reforms |
| Total Potential Expansion | ≈ + 55–65 | By FY 2026 | — | — |
Future Outlook
If global oil prices remain moderate and Western demand stabilises, India’s total exports could cross US $ 870–880 billion in FY 2025-26, with the trade deficit holding near US $ 290 billion.
The challenge is not only quantitative growth but qualitative transformation—shifting from volume-based to value-based exports.
Why ABC Live Is Publishing This Report Now
This ABC Live audit combines government statistics with real-time verification to test the reliability of India’s trade narrative. It applies the ABC Live Performance Audit Model—checking conceptual rigour, data integrity, and policy feasibility—to ensure evidence-based journalism at a time when export optimism must be backed by transparency.
References
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Economic Times — India’s Total Exports Grow 6 % in FY 2024-25
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Livemint — India’s Trade Deficit at US $ 282.8 bn in FY 2025
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