Critical Analysis of India’s DAC ₹3.60 lakh Crore AoN

Critical Analysis of India’s DAC ₹3.60 lakh Crore AoN

New Delhi (ABC Live) — India’s defence modernisation story shows a persistent gap between announcement and outcome. On one hand, large approvals create strategic signalling. On the other hand, frontline capability often arrives years later because delays, cost escalation, and sustainment bottlenecks slow execution. This DAC ₹3.60 lakh crore AoN explained article shows why intent

New Delhi (ABC Live) — India’s defence modernisation story shows a persistent gap between announcement and outcome. On one hand, large approvals create strategic signalling. On the other hand, frontline capability often arrives years later because delays, cost escalation, and sustainment bottlenecks slow execution.

This DAC ₹3.60 lakh crore AoN explained article shows why intent alone does not create military power. Instead, it maps how India must convert approvals into contracts, deliveries, and frontline availability.

Against this backdrop, the Defence Acquisition Council decided on 12 February 2026 to accord Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) for proposals worth about ₹3.60 lakh crore. Importantly, this figure does not represent spending. Rather, it represents a statement of intent—what India plans to pursue, not what India has already purchased.

More importantly, AoN sits at the starting point of the procurement pipeline. At present, authorities have not signed contracts. Likewise, negotiators have not fixed prices. Similarly, planners have not frozen quantities. Moreover, officials have not locked timelines. Therefore, the real contest begins after AoN, inside a long and complex execution chain.

At the same time, the Ministry of Defence has released the Draft Defence Acquisition Procedure-2026 (DAP-2026) for consultation. Consequently, the procurement rulebook itself sits in motion. ABC Live has analysed these reforms in detail here:
👉 https://abclive.in/2026/02/11/draft-dap-2026-india-defence-procurement/

Ultimately, the central question is not how large the AoN figure is. Rather, the real question is whether India can convert intent into capability—on time, within cost, and with genuine self-reliance.

DAC ₹3.60 Lakh Crore AoN Explained: Why Intent Is Not Capability

To begin with, AoN only clears an entry gate. In contrast, a signed contract creates a legal and financial obligation. Therefore, readers should treat the ₹3.60 lakh crore figure as a pipeline indicator, not as immediate expenditure.

Why AoN Is Not Spending

First, AoN confirms the requirement. Second, it authorises the next steps. However, it still does not lock money, quantity, or timelines.

Parameter What AoN Means What AoN Does NOT Mean
Legal status Acceptance of the capability need Contract signed
Financial status Indicative ceiling Budget released
Quantity Tentative Frozen
Price Not negotiated Finalised
Timeline Undefined Locked

Historical conversion pattern (approximate)

Outcome Category Share of AoN Value
Converts to a contract 60–70%
Delayed/rescoped 20–25%
Dropped 5–10%

As a result, the implied realistic contract potential from ₹3.60 lakh crore equals:
≈ ₹2.1–₹2.5 lakh crore over 5–10 years

Service-Wise Indicative Allocation (Analytical Estimate)

Broadly, the distribution tilts toward air and naval power, while the Army’s share emphasises readiness and life-extension.

Service Share (%) Value (₹ lakh crore) Dominant Cost Driver
Indian Air Force 45% 1.62 Fighters, missiles, and ISR
Indian Navy 28% 1.01 P8I + power systems
Indian Army 20% 0.72 Overhauls + mines
Coast Guard 7% 0.25 Sensors
Total 100% 3.60

Therefore, nearly three-quarters of the AoN envelope targets air and naval capabilities.

Platform Category vs Cost Structure

In practice, sustainment drives long-term cost. For that reason, governments must price and govern life-cycle commitments early.

Category Acquisition Cost Share Lifecycle / Sustainment Share
Fighter aircraft 30–35% 65–70%
Maritime patrol aircraft 25–30% 70–75%
Missiles 45–50% 50–55%
Ground platform overhauls 55–60% 40–45%
Sensors (EO/IR) 60–65% 35–40%

In other words, the largest fiscal risk lies not in purchase price, but in three to four decades of sustainment.

For deeper context on how rules shape outcomes, see ABC Live’s DAP-2026 explainer:
👉 https://abclive.in/2026/02/11/draft-dap-2026-india-defence-procurement/

(i) Cost–Risk Heat Map (Quantified)

Notably, the most expensive systems often sit in the highest-risk bracket. Therefore, the state must enforce strict governance on red-zone items.

Scale: 1 = Low | 5 = Very High

System Technical Risk Cost Risk Sustainment Risk Composite
MRFA Fighters 5 5 5 🔴
P8I Aircraft 4 5 5 🔴
AS-HAPS 5 4 4 🔴
4 MW Marine Turbine (Make-I) 5 4 3 🔴
Combat Missiles 3 3 3 🟡
ARV/T-72/BMP-II Overhaul 3 3 3 🟡
EO/IR Dornier 2 2 3 🟡
Vibhav Mines 1 1 1 🟢

(ii) AoN → Contract → Induction Timeline (Typical)

First: Year 0 – AoN
Next: Year 1 – RFP issued
Then: Year 2–3 – Trials & technical evaluation
After that: Year 3–4 – Commercial negotiation
Subsequently: Year 4–5 – Contract signing
Thereafter: Year 6–7 – First deliveries
Finally: Year 8–10 – Full operational capability

Meanwhile, large Indian defence programmes typically suffer two to four years of delay beyond initial schedules.

Capability Uplift vs Gap Coverage

Overall, AoN narrows several gaps. However, it does not close all of them, especially where force structure requires large-scale replacement.

Domain Current Gap Level AoN Impact
Fighter squadron strength Very High Partial
Precision deep strike High Strong
Persistent ISR High Moderate
Armour fleet modernity High Low
Naval ASW reach High Strong
Coastal surveillance Moderate Strong

Related reading (Internal link placeholder):
👉 ABC Live: India’s fighter squadron gap and procurement timelines (Replace with your closest relevant defence link)

Indigenous Content Exposure

Equally important, the indigenous share varies sharply by segment. Therefore, India must negotiate IP depth, not just assembly.

Segment Likely Indigenous Share
Missiles 70–85%
Sensors / EO-IR 60–75%
Airframe structures 50–60%
Engines 30–40%
Mission software 30–40%

As a result, assembly in India without deep IP access still creates long-term import dependence.

(iii) Procurement Governance Checklist (DAP-Anchored)

To ensure success, authorities must enforce discipline at every stage. Likewise, auditors should track compliance through measurable milestones.

AoN Stage

✔ Link capability to threat scenario
✔ Prepare lifecycle cost estimate

RFP Stage

✔ Freeze SQRs
✔ Define indigenous content roadmap

Trial Stage

✔ Enforce fixed timelines
✔ Ensure independent oversight

Commercial Stage

✔ Use lifecycle cost as an evaluation factor
✔ Adopt availability-based payments

Contract Stage

✔ Link payments to milestones
✔ Apply penalty + incentive matrix

Sustainment Stage

✔ Build Indian MRO ecosystem
✔ Conduct annual availability audits

Financial Stress-Test Scenarios

For example, even small shocks can significantly change the real cost.

Scenario Outcome
10% cost escalation +₹36,000 crore
20% rupee depreciation +₹50,000–₹60,000 crore
3-year delay Capability slippage + obsolescence

Related reading (Internal link placeholder):
👉 ABC Live: Defence capital outlay and sustainment burden (Replace with your closest finance/defence budget link)

Conclusion

In sum, the DAC AoN of ₹3.60 lakh crore explained here should be understood as a gateway, not a guarantee. It opens doors. However, it does not deliver weapons.

If execution remains weak, India will repeat a familiar cycle: big approvals, long delays, rising costs, and diluted capability. Conversely, if authorities enforce governance, structure contracts well, and plan sustainment from the start, the same AoN package can become a force multiplier for deterrence and a catalyst for defence-industrial self-reliance.

Ultimately, India’s military strength will not be judged by the size of approvals. Instead, it will be judged by frontline availability and by the speed with which India can generate capability in crisis.

ABC Live Editorial Note

This explainer is based on official PIB disclosures, Draft DAP-2026 consultation material, and historical defence procurement performance.

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