New Delhi (ABC Live): Europe’s space industry stands at a pivotal moment. For decades, it ranked among the world’s leaders in satellite manufacturing and launch systems. However, over the last ten years, that position has steadily eroded as the United States and China expanded aggressively across the space value chain. Against this backdrop, in October 2025, industry heavyweights—Airbus Defence and Space, Thales Alenia Space, and Leonardo—announced plans to merge their space divisions under the codename BROMO (see: BROMO merger announcement), a move welcomed by some as unavoidable but criticised by others as long overdue and subject to European Commission competition approval.
👉 BROMO merger announcement (Airbus): https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-10-airbus-thales-leonardo-space-merger-bromo

At the same time, Europe’s sovereign access to space has been weakened by a severe launcher crisis. Meanwhile, low Earth orbit (LEO) mega-constellations—led by Starlink—are reshaping market dynamics at speed. As a result, Europe’s space strategy faces intense scrutiny. The core question is simple but urgent: can the BROMO merger restore competitiveness and strategic autonomy, or will it arrive too late to close a widening gap with global rivals?

Why Europe’s Space Crisis Is Structural, Not Cyclical

For the first time since the early Space Age, Europe risks slipping from being a structural space power to a dependent space user. This risk does not stem from a lack of scientific skill or industrial heritage. Rather, it flows from a shift in how space power is built.

Space leadership today depends less on prestige missions and more on scale, speed, and persistent orbital presence. LEO has become the backbone of modern communications, intelligence, military resilience, and commercial services. Consequently, those who control LEO infrastructure shape data flows and strategic leverage in both peace and conflict.

The United States recognised this shift early. China followed with state-backed urgency. Europe hesitated. BROMO is therefore not just an industrial merger. Instead, it is a test of whether Europe can still adapt fast enough when strategic time is running out.

Europe’s Space Sector in Crisis

Europe’s traditional space model—built on collaborative programmes and multilateral governance—delivered results for decades. Today, however, it is under strain from geopolitical shocks, market reconfiguration, and disruptive commercial entrants.

Market Share Decline

Despite continued scientific achievements, Europe’s industrial footprint has shrunk sharply. In particular, the rise of U.S. New Space firms—most notably SpaceX—has transformed cost structures through vertical integration and high launch cadence. As a result, Europe has lost ground in both manufacturing and launch markets.

The Market Shift Europe Failed to Match

Europe’s industrial base was designed for geostationary (GEO) satellites, once the backbone of global telecommunications. However, that segment is now in structural decline. At the same time, demand has moved decisively toward non-geostationary systems.

Satellite Distribution by Orbit (2023)

LEO constellations now drive growth. In fact, in 2022 alone, more than 6,700 satellites were operational—roughly double the count from 2020. Consequently, competitiveness now depends on mass production, rapid design cycles, and frequent launches—areas where Europe remains weaker.

The Sovereignty Shock: Europe’s Launcher Crisis

Alongside market decline, Europe suffered a profound sovereignty shock between 2022 and 2024. The so-called launcher crisis exposed deep vulnerabilities in access to orbit.

Orbital Launches (2023)

The retirement of Ariane 5, persistent problems with Vega and Vega-C, and the end of cooperation with Russia on Soyuz left Europe nearly grounded. As a result, a hard truth emerged: without reliable launch capacity, industrial strength alone cannot secure autonomy.
By contrast, other spacefaring powers prioritised launcher continuity and redundancy—an issue ABC Live previously examined in its analysis of ISRO’s LVM3-M6 mission: https://abclive.in/2025/12/25/isros-lvm3-m6-mission/

Why the BROMO Merger Matters

In this context, BROMO seeks to address both competitiveness and sovereignty gaps. Specifically, it aims to:

• pool Europe’s largest space manufacturers,

• reduce fragmentation in research and production,

• achieve scale in satellite manufacturing, and

• strengthen bargaining power in global markets.

In theory, a single European space prime could compete more effectively with U.S. and Chinese firms that benefit from tight integration and steady public demand.

Public Space Budgets (Approx., Annual)

However, this gap matters. Europe operates with less than one-fifth of the U.S. public space spending. Therefore, it has less room to absorb risk, invest quickly, or scale production at speed.

Timing Is Everything

While BROMO may be necessary, timing remains its biggest weakness. Critics argue that consolidation alone will not be enough—and that it is happening too slowly.

Constellation Deployment Timelines

Europe’s flagship constellation, IRIS², has slipped toward 2030. Consequently, U.S. and Chinese systems will enjoy several years of operational lead, learning effects, and market lock-in.

Europe’s Strategic Imperatives

The impact of delay extends beyond economics. Increasingly, Europe faces wider strategic risks:

• Dependence on foreign communications was highlighted during the Ukraine war.

• Limited autonomous observation and intelligence capacity.

• Growing pressure from allies to assume greater defence responsibility, including in space.

Italy’s recent engagement with Starlink for secure government links illustrates this tension. In the short term, such choices are practical. Over time, however, they weaken Europe’s own industrial base.

Conclusion: Necessary—but Still Not Enough

The BROMO merger is a critical industrial step. It addresses long-standing fragmentation and may slow Europe’s decline. Yet, speed matters. At the current pace, Europe risks ceding irrecoverable ground to rivals that move faster, spend more, and integrate better.

Therefore, Europe needs more than consolidation. It needs accelerated deployment, simpler rules, launcher reform, and sustained strategic funding that match the scale of global competition. Without these measures, BROMO may stabilise decline—but it will not reverse it.

ABC Live — How We Verified This

This report draws on verified satellite databases, official launch records, public budget documents, and cross-checked industry disclosures. ABC Live applies a data-first editorial method to ensure accuracy, balance, and transparency.