New Delhi (ABC Live): Future of Geopolitics: On April 2 2025, the White House declared a national trade emergency under IEEPA, introducing a 10 % baseline tariff on all imports and up to 50 % “reciprocal” duties for countries with large trade surpluses. Consequently, economic policy has become Washington’s primary instrument of statecraft.

Unlike previous administrations that sought broad consensus, Trump 2.0 advances transactional sovereignty over collective rules. Its strategy rests on three principles:

1. Tariffs as diplomacy — using economic pressure to gain leverage.
2. Peace through deals, not institutions — prioritising direct agreements over UN frameworks.
3. Power through disruption — evaluating alliances by cost and advantage, not ideology.

As a result, institutions such as the UN, WTO, and WHO now play a reduced role in conflict resolution and policy coordination. In effect, the world is transitioning from shared governance to strategic self-interest.

Structural Shifts with Verified Evidence

Trump’s Peace Deal Strategy — Transactional Peace as Power

Unlike the UN’s gradual “peace process” model, Trump’s approach relies on direct bargains. Therefore, peace is treated as a negotiated transaction rather than a long-term framework.

Middle East — Peace as a Transaction

Trump’s envoys advanced Abraham Accords 2.0, linking Saudi-Israel normalisation to U.S. defence guarantees and arms sales. Meanwhile, a Gaza ceasefire proposal brokered through Egypt and Qatar marginalised the UN. Furthermore, energy sanctions on Iran reinforced Washington’s role as chief mediator and enforcer.

Europe & Ukraine — Conditional Peace Aid

Military assistance is now performance-linked. Consequently, Europe co-finances aid via the PURL mechanism, and Kyiv faces pressure to accept a territorial pause outside UN channels.

Asia — Direct Deals and Deterrence Sales

Trump floated a “Busan Declaration” for U.S.–North Korea talks under a “sanctions-for-freeze” model. At the same time, Taiwan’s military support shifted from grants to sales, commercialising deterrence.

In summary, Trump’s deal-based peace creates tactical stability but weakens institutional credibility and reduces trust in multilateral processes.

The Fall of the UN and Multilateralism

Historically, the UN embodied collective security. However, budget reductions and political divisions now limit its influence.

• Financially, a 22 % U.S. funding cut has significantly weakened peacekeeping operations in Mali and South Sudan, forcing mission scale-downs.

• Politically, the Security Council’s veto gridlock on Gaza and Ukraine has undermined its authority.

• Diplomatically, U.S. non-participation in COP30 (Belém) and reduced WHO support shift global policy leadership toward the EU and China.

Consequently, the world is moving toward regional coalitions and issue-based alliances, where decision-making depends on resources and influence rather than shared norms.

Regional Analysis Future of Geopolitics

U.S.–China Rivalry

The Busan mini-deal eased tariff pressure yet left technology controls untouched. Nevertheless, strategic competition persists through semiconductors and critical minerals supply chains.

Europe & NATO

Under the “America Pays Less” doctrine, European members increased defence spending to a collective average of 2.05 % of GDP, achieving historic levels of burden-sharing.

Middle East

Despite expanded sanctions, Iranian oil exports remain between 1.7 and 2.1 mb/d, illustrating adaptive trading channels. Meanwhile, U.S. backed Gulf-Israel talks signal a shift toward regional security arrangements outside the UN framework.

India and the Indo-Pacific

India faces 50 % tariffs on steel, autos, and textiles. As a result, exports to the U.S. declined by 14 % between July and August 2025. Nevertheless, India’s growing role in electronics manufacturing and Global South partnerships offers new strategic leverage.

India Impact in Numbers

Therefore, India must balance economic losses from tariffs with diplomatic gains as a credible bridge between developing nations and industrial powers. Moreover, its consistent support for UN peacekeeping reinforces India’s position as a responsible stakeholder in an uncertain world.

Future of Geopolitics Risks and Scenarios (2025–26)

1. Legal Uncertainty: A Supreme Court ruling against IEEPA tariffs could force policy revision.
2. Energy Volatility: Tighter Iran enforcement may raise Brent prices above US$110 per barrel.
3. Institutional Risk: Continued U.S. disengagement could reduce UN missions by 2026.
4. Climate Fragmentation: The EU’s CBAM and China’s Green Finance Framework are filling the vacuum left by the U.S.

In conclusion, Trump 2.0 has accelerated a shift from collective governance to competitive diplomacy, replacing international consensus with a network of conditional agreements.

Why ABC Live Is Publishing This Future of Geopolitics Now

As Trump 2.0 completes its first 100 days and the UN faces budgetary stress, ABC Live publishes this data-verified assessment of how deal-based peace, tariff diplomacy, and institutional withdrawal are reshaping global order.

Unlike speculative commentary, ABC Live applies its “Data Before Debate” methodology, combining primary documents — executive orders, UN reports, trade data, and NATO budgets — to trace the real-world impact of policy decisions on emerging economies.

ABC Live Verified References

1. White House EO 14257 (Apr 2025)
2. AP / Economic Times — India 50 % Tariff (Aug 2025)
3. U.S.–China Mini-Deal (Oct 2025)
4. EEPA Tariff Rulings (Aug 2025)
5. NATO Defence Expenditure 2014-2025
6. UNFCCC — COP30 Belém Schedule
7. UN Budget 2025 — Peacekeeping Cuts
8. U.S. Treasury — Iran Sanctions 2025
9.  India Export Data & Foxconn Shift 2025
10. DGFT India — Trade Statistics FY 2024–25

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